Strait of Hormuz unlikely to fully reopen before late 2026, says Baker Hughes

Baker Hughes, the multinational oilfield services firm, has projected that the strategic waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz will not see a complete restoration of commercial tanker movements until the second half of 2026, a timeline that underscores the paradox of a fragile ceasefire that has failed to translate into any meaningful de‑escalation of the competing blockades imposed by the United States and Iran.

Current observations indicate that tanker traffic through the strait remains at a historically low level, a condition directly attributable to the simultaneous enforcement of separate maritime restrictions by the two regional powers, each of which appears more concerned with signaling geopolitical resolve than with facilitating the flow of energy commodities essential to global markets. Nevertheless, the Baker Hughes assessment, which draws on proprietary flow‑modelling data, suggests that even if the ceasefire endures, the operational realities of dual blockades will likely postpone any substantive normalization of passage until well beyond the midpoint of 2026, effectively extending the period of economic uncertainty for both export‑dependent nations and downstream consumers.

The juxtaposition of a formally declared ceasefire with the continued, and indeed mutually reinforced, maritime interdictions illustrates a broader pattern in which diplomatic overtures are routinely uncoupled from on‑the‑ground (or on‑the‑water) enforcement mechanisms, thereby rendering peace initiatives nominal while preserving the strategic leverage that each side derives from restricting a chokepoint that accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum trade. Consequently, the forecast that full traffic will not resume until the latter half of 2026 serves less as a technical prediction than as an implicit acknowledgment that without a substantive resolution to the competing blockade policies, the strait will continue to function as a geopolitical bargaining chip rather than as a reliable artery of international commerce.

Published: April 25, 2026