Kpler predicts Brent could reach $125 if US blockade of Hormuz persists

Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, told Television on Wednesday that if the United States succeeds in maintaining its naval blockade of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz for an additional two months, Iran’s oil‑derived revenues will be reduced to essentially nothing, and he added that under the same circumstances global benchmark Brent crude could climb back to a range of roughly 120 to 125 dollars per barrel, thereby offsetting any marginal benefit that consumers might accrue from the current supply constraints; the projection, however, implicitly acknowledges that the United States’ capacity to sustain a maritime interdiction without an explicit diplomatic breakthrough hinges on an operational endurance that has historically proven as fleeting as the political will that initially justified it.

By quantifying Iran’s oil income as collapsing to zero, Falakshahi not only underscores the efficacy of the blockade as a pressure lever but also sidesteps the broader economic repercussions that such a disruption would inevitably trigger across regional trade corridors, shipping insurers, and the global energy pricing apparatus, nevertheless, the analysis stops short of addressing how a prolonged closure of the waterway might compel market participants to seek alternative routes or to stockpile reserves, thereby introducing variables that could blunt the predicted price surge and expose the underlying assumption that supply scarcity translates linearly into higher Brent valuations.

The episode therefore illustrates a familiar pattern in which policy instruments are calibrated to produce short‑term market signals while the long‑term institutional gaps—such as the absence of a multilateral mechanism to adjudicate disputes over chokepoint access—remain unaddressed, leaving the global oil system perpetually vulnerable to the whims of naval posturing, and in the absence of a coordinated diplomatic resolution, the forecasted rebound of Brent to $125 per barrel appears less a consequence of market fundamentals than a predictable byproduct of a policy choice that knowingly trades temporary price spikes for the strategic illusion of leverage.

Published: April 29, 2026